The most deadly season for driving is ...
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The most deadly season for driving is ...
The fall. And winter is the safest.
Tuesday July 14, 2009
Surprise: Fall most deadly driving, winter safest
DAVID N. GOODMAN
Associated Press Writer
DETROIT (AP) - Icy winter roads and vacation-clogged summer highways might seem the most dangerous for motorists, but new research says fall is when driving is at its deadliest.
A new research report has found October has the year's highest death rate per distance driven. In fact, the danger of dying in a crash is 16 percent greater in October than in wintry March - the safest month of the year.
The findings by Michael Sivak at the University of Michigan Transportation Safety Institute in Ann Arbor are reported in the July issue of the journal Traffic Injury Prevention.
Sivak analyzed monthly crash death figures for the U.S. from 1994 to 2006. He says October had a death rate of 10.2 per billion kilometers, compared with March's 8.8 per billion.
Tuesday July 14, 2009
Surprise: Fall most deadly driving, winter safest
DAVID N. GOODMAN
Associated Press Writer
DETROIT (AP) - Icy winter roads and vacation-clogged summer highways might seem the most dangerous for motorists, but new research says fall is when driving is at its deadliest.
A new research report has found October has the year's highest death rate per distance driven. In fact, the danger of dying in a crash is 16 percent greater in October than in wintry March - the safest month of the year.
The findings by Michael Sivak at the University of Michigan Transportation Safety Institute in Ann Arbor are reported in the July issue of the journal Traffic Injury Prevention.
Sivak analyzed monthly crash death figures for the U.S. from 1994 to 2006. He says October had a death rate of 10.2 per billion kilometers, compared with March's 8.8 per billion.
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I hate mishmash statistics. Why can't they post the actual number of people killed, instead of dividing it by miles driven? How about something meaningful like deaths per day. Then we could see if a particular month is truly "deadlier."
Of course the average based on miles driven will be shorter in summer. People drive considerably farther distances in shorter periods of time. It's called vacation.
Of course the average based on miles driven will be shorter in summer. People drive considerably farther distances in shorter periods of time. It's called vacation.
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The problem with a flat number is it hides the significance. For example, 10.2 deaths per billion kilometers is the same death rate, regardless of where it is. But if you say there were "10 deaths last year", it means something drastically different for Los Angeles CA than it does for Nome Alaska. LA, no one notices, Nome, that is half their population.
The biggest thing to remember from any 'statistics' like this though is:
"What information reveals is important, but what it conceals is vital"
or
"Do not consider what information says if you are not also going to consider what it does not say"
What this stat doesn't say is why, or the crashes that almost kill you, but only leave you horribly mangled instead. Just like the "speed is a factor in a 3rd of crashes" isn't lying, but it is putting incorrect focus on one of several factors, when the other factors (such as intoxication, distracted, inexperienced, faulty equipment) have a higher 'involved' rate.
The biggest thing to remember from any 'statistics' like this though is:
"What information reveals is important, but what it conceals is vital"
or
"Do not consider what information says if you are not also going to consider what it does not say"
What this stat doesn't say is why, or the crashes that almost kill you, but only leave you horribly mangled instead. Just like the "speed is a factor in a 3rd of crashes" isn't lying, but it is putting incorrect focus on one of several factors, when the other factors (such as intoxication, distracted, inexperienced, faulty equipment) have a higher 'involved' rate.
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A key factor could be daylight, said Peter Kissinger of the Washington-based AAA Foundation. October combines the relative warmth of early fall with the lengthening hours of darkness.
"The risks at night are substantially higher than during the day," Kissinger said.
"The risks at night are substantially higher than during the day," Kissinger said.
That's an entirely valid analysis. If you were studying homicide rates, it would make no sense to compare the total number of deaths in Los Angeles with the total number in Des Moines or Peoria. What you would want is the per capita rate -- the number per 100,000 people.
Last edited by No More Oldsmobiles; 07-15-2009 at 04:21 PM.
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"In theory, astronomically, the equinoxes ought to be the middle of the respective seasons, but temperature lag (caused by the thermal latency of the ground and sea) means that seasons appear later than dates calculated from a purely astronomical perspective. The actual lag varies with region, so some cultures regard the autumnal equinox as "mid-autumn" whilst other treat it as the start of autumn."
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