ASH8

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/06/news...ig_three_woes/

Big Three face bankruptcy fears

After huge losses and plunging sales, experts aren't ruling out the possibility that GM, Ford or Chrysler might eventually be forced to declare bankruptcy.

rotarygod

It may or may not happen. We'll see. They aren't all in the same boat as each other even though it appears that way. GM is going to be huge again in a few years and will leave every other auto manufacturer utterly stunned especially Toyota as they quickly become a nobody in the hybrid world. Just watch! I've always been a Japanese car person so this is weird for me to say.

Icemark

No, GM only has one good designer... and he only does one good car every 3 years...

No matter how good GM comes back as (which lets face it- the quality will never be better than mid pack if they keep building cars in Canada and Mexico) most of their cars are still going to be butt ugly.

And butt ugly only sells to middle America.

Good looking current production GM cars:

Vette
CTS
Sky/Solstice
and I am mixed on the Camero... it could be either way once we see 10,000 of them on the street.


Ugly as ****:
everything else... like the Ion, Malibu, every SUV and crossover, every Saab, every Pontiac (except for the Solstice), most of the Caddys, Volt, etc,

ASH8

Hi Icemark..

Off topic here...I know you are a stats man and you probably already know this..

But we know the Rx-7 (FD) replacement was the RX-8, OOps, sorry..
The FE1031 RX-8 is Series one...

Well the Series II Chassis/Model number is FE1032---, I had this confirmed when I checked out the new model on Monday, I like it, it looks much better in the flesh and the interior just looks better finished or more prestigious.
I was hoping for a better selection of colors, do you think we will see any new paint next year?

I would think the all new Rotary to come out in 3-4 years will be the
FF1031...or FF1061 with a 16B(X)

ASH8

And Icemark I have to agree with your selection on ugly GM cars, the G8 is not too bad, but overall the American designed and made cars are just too bloody big, ugly and overweight.
And really this has been the case for the last 40 years when your Chevy's, Pontiac's, Fairlane's etc were as big as the titanic!, particularly the late 60 and 70's.
Yeah they may of had HP (GUTS), but handling was and is non existent.

This just came into my Inbox..
http://carsguide.news.com.au/site/mo...referrer=email

I wonder what the "new power train" technology Mazda will show off at the Paris Motorshow...my guess the SSIS (Smart Stop Idle System)

Red Devil

Have you actually been to a plant in Mexico?

rotarygod

It's not about quality. There's more to it than that. GM has never been known for the highest quality cars yet up until very recently they were at the top of the automotive food chain. In the coming decade we are going to see a fundamental change in the way cars are designed. The very first significant change since the automobile was invented as they are still fundamentally the same designs and concepts. GM is going to lead the way and it's going to be as revolutionary for the automotive world as the diesel/electric locomotive was to the steam engine. Just watch. It's GOING to happen!

Clavius

Well RG I'm sorry if GM thinks the Volt is gonna save it they are seriously going to have to have a long and very serious talks with their dealers. I see the dealers once recieving the Volt slapping on HUGE mark ups, sure I'm assuming the car will look nice enough to get a overall approval from mostly everyone. That and the 40k starting price that is rumored to start off with is going to alienate the core group of buyers that really need a car like this (15-25k buyers). GM's only real hope is to find great designers (mind you I said great not good!), and when they create a hit in the form of a concept, green light the sucker fast as they can. And RG I know your talking about more than just the Volt but it is what everyone always centers on as their life saver and hence gets my focus.

That and they have to start making cars that will overall sell worldwide. All I ever read about his how great cars in EU are that our supposed "American Auto Makers" make yet we dont get them (but soon will Re: Ford!). I seriously don't buy their cop-out of "American buyers will only buy BIG.", with the current backlash against SUV's I see people looking to smaller cars very damn quickly. Why I am personaly slightly miffed about Mazda giving us a 6 that is "remodeled for American Buyers". Small is the new Big, the quicker GM, Ford and Chrysler realize this the quicker they'll turn around.

Overall I see Ford being the one to overall survive, their quick action to make EU cars here in the states and sell them is the "Bold Move" they should of made years ago, though no real mention of a hybrid halo is slightly worrying. GM seems to be putting all ther eggs in one basket with the Volt, and Chrysler seems to be doing um.... erm... keeping everything secret aparently which means they dont know what they are even doing (besides making ugly *** cars that no one really cares for.).

alfy28

what Ford and Gm needs to do is bring the cars that t they have in Europe over here. They will do a better job. You would think after watching Honda, Nissan, and all the other car companies non US style car. they would jump on the band wagon and used their european style over here. No one is buying up American Style car like hot cakes. yes Ponitac new 4 door rwd car (holden ) is the going in the right direction. But Gm needs to have all their products going that direction.



who wants to buy a American Focus, when Europe gets a focus that looks like 10x better. now i know the RS is a special version. but the stock version of this car looks way better then what US gets that for sure.

delhi

You sow what you reap.

Lousy products, questionable reliability, huge labour cost & ignorant attitude towards consumer interests are some of the few seeds they have been nurturing.

thecow135

we're getting one like that soon. they're just releasing to europe first.

alfy28

nice, thanks for the info cow. looks like Ford finally got the memo.

Icemark

Quality is fundamental on selling low to mid end cars. If it wasn't why are their so many people buying Toyota's and Honda's?

There are some places in the US where GM market share has dropped to under 20% including their trucks. That didn't happen because GM makes ugly cars. 10 years ago, I worked for a supplier for GM for a while as a factory liaison and tech... GM builds the cheapest *** cars and trucks they can get away with. I saw their engineers building and designing the next gen models back then... and predicted they would be in the same place as they are today.

I think you are dreaming on this. GM had the chance to fix their cars back in the mid-70s, and again in the mid -80s and and again with the EV-1 and like products in the 90's... and they dropped the ball every single time and stuck with the same old tech and the same old design.

Don't get me wrong. Anyone can build a $50-60K car that lasts 100K miles and performs... but to build a $15-25K car that lasts reasonably well and performs reasonably well take some major engineering. GM is great at that engineering and probably has the best engineering in the world (because it really does take great engineering to use sub par materials and designs and make them work reasonably well).

But become a world leader... in car manufacturing...no... You are dreaming. They just can't get out of their own way.

alfy28

also i wish ford and gm would redesign their front grille. The chrome looking grill onlyh make their car look very tacky.

rotarygod

I'm not trying to say that GM is going to be the main car manufacturer and everyone will bow to them. They are however going to be the first player to the car design revolution that we are about to see. Everyone else will be forced to follow. If you don't see this then you lack the foresight that most people do but it IS coming. Here's a hint, the transmission is going to be extinct in our lifetime. So will mechanical brakes, and a huge host of other items that we think of when we envision cars.

rotarygod

The problem is that people treat the Volt as if that sole car is going to save GM. It's not. It doesn't matter if they don't sell as well as a Prius even though the first generation Prius had horrible sales and the current car is still the worlds single biggest automotive biggest joke. It's price point doesn't even matter at $40K. Government incentives aren't important. The only thing that is important is that the car will exist. That's it. That's all that matters. I know some people would have said the same thing about the EV1 but it didn't go away because the platform didn't have potential as an idea. It did. Battery technology wasn't what it is now and with low gas prices, there was no reason for it to be pursued. Times have changed however and now is the right time. The Prius is proof as it WAS released in a time when it wasn't right and it's not evolving with technology yet is still selling.

The importance of the Volt is nothing more than proof of concept. It's going to prove that pursuing only parallel hybrids is a waste of time. It's going to prove that pursuing hydrogen as a fuel is a waste of time. It's going to prove that the transmission wars to see who can add more gears and complexity is a waste of time. It's going to prove that there's a simpler, better way to do things. This IS going to happen and others are going to follow. Current gas prices will make it happen.

There are only a couple of things that truly affect fundamental car designs and gas prices, not oil companies, is the main thing. If gas prices are cheap, people will keep buying inefficient cars. Cars will stay complicated since mass production has made them fairly cheap. When gas prices go up above a certain point, demand changes. Manufacturers will start finding ways to increase economy as that's what people will pay for. Money is the main controlling factor in everything and has just as much say in a final design than the very engineers do. If there's a way to get rid of parts, it means manufactering labor costs go down. Simplicity really is the best thing. To make it viable we need the technology. We have it now and getting better everyday.

The Volt is a hint at things to come. It's not the final layout as to what the potential is but others are already working on these. The Volt is proof of concept and it'll show the world that GM really does know what they are doing now. 3/4 of their financial losses this year have come from bs union issues rather than bad decision. Their losses are due to falling stock values not an outflow of company cash. They've got lots of that. At least currently they do. Anything can happen and the risk of bankruptcy is always there. It can't be ruled out but they aren't about to go extinct anytime soon.

In 25 years, you'll be hard pressed to find a car that still has it's internal combustion engine directly coupled to the wheels through a drivetrain. Fundamental changes. Then again many were in denial that something as powerful and beautifully masterful as the steam engine could possibly be replaced by something so ugly as the diesel electric locomotive. Same thing here. Some see it coming. Others are in denial or just plain ignorant to progress. That doesn't change the fact that it's coming.

I will admit that it'll be a sad day when you can no longer tell the sound of a car but it's exhaust tone. It'll be a sad day when the sonorous note of a Ferrari at full throttle no longer will echo through the countryside or off of track walls. However it was a sad day when you could no longer hear the chuff of a steam engine going down the tracks. I love steam engines but I also understand technology, maintenance, and a host of other things that makes them less desireable not the least of which is reliability. It's time for the car to undergo it's first major design breakthrough since it's inception over 100 years ago.

Icemark

But again the Volt is junk. First to market means nothing (as you clearly pointed out with the POS called the Piruis).

GM was first to market with the EV-1... yet the electric Toyota RAV4 blew it away, both in sales and customer demand. Why??? The 2nd gen EV1 had better batteries, better handling, better range, better acceleration than the Toyota... but people wanted the Toyota more.

I think you are again dreaming of you think GM is going to lead anything in this tech. The Japanese are already years ahead in electric drivetrains (which of course do not need brakes or transmissions) and are based on reduced sized electric rail systems. GM may be the first to return to the market with a fully electric vehicle, but they share their fuel cell tech with Ford and Toyota, so they won't have any advantage in long range electric vehicles (200+ MPC)... and of course then GM doesn't have the reliability of even Ford. Toyota on the other hand is working directly with Panasonic on batteries for commuter vehicles (less than 200 MPC [Miles Per Charge] ), and is not looking at the simply lithium batteries that GM is convinced will work.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if in that 25 years you mention that GM is still around. Maybe as a division of Toyota... but I doubt other wise. Too many bad decisions made by the last 30+ years of GM management.

ASH8

SORRY to cut in here, but you are missing one fundamental flaw in your argumant.... Until your nation goes on a diet, and I am talking HUMANS here the small class market will always remain the same sales wise.

You younger guys are OK, but the overwhelming majority of Americans will just not fit into a Mazda 2 or Ford Focus...the seats would break!.
Let alone your fixation of Horse Power, these small cars would be so gutless
with a 220LB plus driver.

With respect you know America builds Butt ugly Cars because the majority of the population are the same, the G8 is our largest car here, the average American over sized family would be at a squeeze to even fit in an G8.

The Volt is still BIG and UGLY....I wonder why..

Don't get me wrong here we Australians as a nation are not that far behind you in the overweight human class.

Until Americans lose weight the mainstream cars will still be large.

BTW Motherhood statements are fine and lack specifics but high oil prices are due to speculators not demand, demand has not outstripped supply.
All we have heard are excuse and a minority of speculators that make a fortune.

I don't think you will see a "fundamental shift" in car design until supply can not keep up with demand.

I think today is a "blip" in the Automotive evolution that will pass...like in the 70's.

MTLbroker

It's the Capitalist way. While things go well, waste all the profits. Pay management obscene bonuses. Go on wasting all the profits. Not do any strategic planning...... etc.
Then thing take a turn for the worse, blame the rest of the world for their problems, declare bankruptcy, wipeout shareholder value, screw the bondholders, and start the cycle over again.
GM, Ford, Chrysler as brands will survive, but they will be owned by Toyota, Tata, Hyundai........

Jedi54

iTrader: (7)

Ford and GM will survive to fight another day.

digitalSniperX1

The state of technology limiting electric cars is quite simply the batteries. While not necessarily applied to passenger cars, the key technologies in future cars such as hybrid technology, regenerative braking, etc have been done for years.

Efficient electric motor/motor control technology is available to every manufacturer and is commonplace.

There is no country/company decades ahead of anyone in electric/hybrid vehicle technology and there won't be until one or more of them invents battery technology that is smaller, more reliable, and long lasting while producing higher output power than is currently available today

And that's a fact.

Anything stated to the contrary is opinion not based in fact.

digitalSniperX1

"With respect you know America builds Butt ugly Cars because the majority of the population are the same, the G8 is our largest car here, the average American over sized family would be at a squeeze to even fit in an G8."

Did he, with "respect", call Americans "butt ugly"?

How is such a statement made with respect?

Would it be with "respect" in Australian culture to call you an "Aushole"?

If it's not respectful in Aussie culture, then, if your post is representative of your character, you'll just have to live with that fact that you are.

Earl the Pearl

I agree with Rotary God on most of the last post. I also kind of think the car is headed in the direction of something like the Volt. Even if gas prices settle down which isn't likely, there are still increased CAFE standards, increasing environmental issues, and the problem of our dependence on foreign oil.

I do disagree with Rotary God on GM's financial losses. Some of it is due to the union cost but most of GM's problems are poor management decisions over many decades. Management made the decision to discount their cars 20-30% and are still doing it, ruining all resale and profits. GM still has some of the highest incentives in the industry. Management made the decision to invest tons of money in new models, only to drop them after one product cycle (Ex. Trailblazer, Envoy, SSR, Lacrosse- gone in 2010, Cobalt- replaced by Cruze in 2011) or not redesign them for years. Management emphasized trucks and SUVs even though after Katrina, truck sales started slowing down. I find it hard to believe Bob Lutz's statement of oh this snuck up on us.

Management never spent the money to create a class leading compact they could make money on or a full size car yet spent how much money to develop the Solstice and Camaro? I read there is no redesign in the works for the Solstice, money well spent. Management expected the unions to take all the cuts yet Wagoneer took in $14 million last year. Yeah that gives lots of room for negotiation. Management has only now decided to build the new Cruze on a global platform and has always lost money on their small cars. Management still holds onto Saab for what reason? I also read the truck program is on hold. Do you think the competition will put their trucks on hold? No Ford and Dodge are released all new redesigned models. GM has been burning through cash like crazy, and will need to borrow again to stay afloat through 2009. Just look at any finance page on news about GM, you will see they spend $250 million a month in interest on their debt. On top of that, they have not been able to stop their market share slide and have not been able to get people interested in brands like Buick, Pontiac or Saab.

They need real management change. The current crop of stooges cannot even tell you what their plan is to turn the company around. In comparison, Mulally at Ford has made his plan clear and I think it may work. The new Fiesta, Euro Focus, and Taurus look like winners. The most important thing is, Ford will be able to make money on all of them.

refugeefrompistons

DIE CHRYSLER!

Anyways its almost guaranteed that GM and Ford will survive. It's just a question about their market share when everything settles.

RG does have a good point. But not just GM. The culture is changing at Ford and GM. They are realizing that their market shares are greatly diminishing and actually making attempts at stopping their slide. Ford has a quite a bit of cash on hand and is gonna be the strongest right when everything settles. From there on, it's anyone's ball.

Notice how Ford's and GM's products have greatly improved from even 5 years ago. They are copying what Japanese automakers are doing, altering factories to be more flexible and ... wringing the neck of that pesky UAW.

Management has changed. They have brought more ignorant (in a not so bad sense) people outside of the carmaking business and those people like Mulally are turning the culture upside down. Times are a changing. Good luck to Ford and GM. I see Chrysler sold to the Indians.

digitalSniperX1

I agree that properly developed and implemented technology marketed esp to the younger buyer in order to build brand image is GM's, and Ford's, best long term bet. And I do agree they did give up the mid/small car segment.

However, I think you're underestimating the union factor in all this which is not the responsibility of the current GM management. Not necessarily today's UAW, but those of the 60's where the problems began.

They are not stooges. They are not stupid people.

When GM and Ford signed contracts with its workers providing them with in service and retirement benefits that they could afford when they had nearly all the NA market, they did what they thought they could afford at the time.

Currently, and if I recall correctly, they are in the whole to the tune of something around $1500/vehicle to pay their retirees.

While this was fine in the 1990's and early 2000's when they earned large profits on their trucks and SUV's, when they turned huge profits, enough in GM's case to build a $50 billion war chest, all still seemed good. They ignored the 1970's precedent which should've been posted on all their office walls.

The energy crisis then provided Toyota and the rest the opportunity required for them to build brand image and acquire market share. Competing Vegas and Pintos with the better Japanese offerings was a costly mistake; they should've designed/built small cars that were profitable then rather than ceding that market to their competitors.

Everyone marketing cars to the masses should know like the back of their hand that one of the best paths to having a loyal customer base is creating it from the bottom up with the first time car buyer.

Today, when they desperately require competitive smaller vehicles, and therefore generally less expensive, it's difficult to get out from under that $1500 competitive deficit in a vehicle that sells for $18k.

Unions continue to cost them productivity, when compared to a Georgetown, KY Toyota plant worker.

More recent mgmt teams did make the mistake of building the SUV/truck brand image and giving up the small and midsized car market. But they did so having failed in efforts to compete in those vehicle classes. The financial obligations made for them, not by them, all but made building small cars that were profitable impossible with manufacturing based primarily in NA.

It is clear with some of the more recent GM and Ford products that they have the required competency required to build competitive products outside the truck/SUV segment. I'm not sure exactly why they've come out of the blue in accomplishing this; perhaps the cars are not profit makers or perhaps outsourcing some major assembly manufacturing have given them the required cost savings they desperately need. For example, GM outsources the production of a great number of V6 engines.

The new Malibu may be a "me too" product when they need more, but it's clearly a fine car as its reliability and overall driving experience puts it squarely in with respectable cars like the Camry and Accord.

However, being "me too" will not solve their brand image problem. In my opinion, their best hope is to build and sell products which are clearly superior as defined by the market, which is ever changing and doesn't come with significant risk. That will probably involve developing new and applying existing technologies meaningful to the buyer. Again, with risk. The gamble with products like the Chevy Volt is simple. Gasoline prices go down for a sufficient period, it'll have at best a uncomfortable spot in the marketplace.

At the time, the Solstice and the Camaro were probably considered good brand image building products which in hindsight are easy to argue against. But it's also impossible to argue that the Solstice did generate a big market buzz.

This is the problem as I see it, and it's not an easy one to solve.