Inferential statistics works in a similar way. You never have the entire population but you just keep taking smaller samples. If you take enough smaller samples, you essentially can create the larger population.


Ecologists use a two-step method to estimate a species' population, although it can be very very accurate OR inaccurate. They first set traps, capture individuals, ID them, and release them. The second step involves capturing in the same traps in the same locations and determining the ratio of the number of "old" previously trapped individuals versus new individuals.


Icemastr may be right in that we still need to see the actual Lexus sales numbers.

 

I don't think Toyota is slipping at all, Honda yes. Toyota doesn't have you or I in their sights right now. Thats fine for them becuase their target demographic is the largest, and it shows in their $$$$. They are making a new sports car and maybe even a supercar, and I wouldn't doubt that along with performance inline with anything else, it will be bulletproof.

As for the IS300, the car was introduced in 98 as a 99 I think, so it is near 6 years old now. Most every cars sales decline near the end of it's production cycle, otherwise, why build a new one. I fail to see what this proves about lexus and/or toyota.

 

I'm not sure what it proves either. But take a look at the ENTIRE Lexus line-up. The only new car is the RX. All the other models are due for a new design. Is this the result of transferring attention to other projects such as Scion?

 

The rest of the story ...



* Note - I&D in RX are Domestic and Import production. I assume they make some in Japan and some here.

 

So the RX numbers in the US really have been declining on a monthly basis (although this has to be qualified because we don't have any of the months between Nov 2003 and Nov 2004).

***Edit: Ok, looks like the domestic and import sales are both for the US. I had thought domestic was for sales in Japan. So the Lexus RX sales appears to still be hot.***

 

Huh? According to that chart, Lexus has sold more RXs this year than last year, and has also sold more this November than last November. It seems that they've just shifted production from their original plant (in Japan?) to one on our side of the ocean (US or Canada, I'd think). Add up the numbers for the RX(I) and RX(D) for both years and see what you get.

 

Ok, I'm confused. I guess the domestic and import sales are both with the US as the point of reference. Is this true? I had thought the domestic sales were sales in Japan but there's no way they could have sold so many in Japan, especially since SUV's are not hot in Japan.

Assuming the domestic and import sales are indeed for the US, it looks like overall Lexus RX sales in the US have actually gone up a bit and the overall for Nov 2004 is comparable to that for Nov 2003, meaning the Lexus RX is still a hot seller. Then where the hell are all the RX's in southern California?

 

I don't have any experience with Lexus, but after shopping around Acura dealerships for an MDX, I felt they have become extremely arrogant. I could not believe their attitude on negotiating a price below MSRP as well as them looking down their nose on my domestic trade in. I walked out and won't return.

As for Lexus- I see a ton of RX330's on the road, but I feel that Infiniti's FX series is a huge competition for them. I would have bought a FX45 in a second if it had 3 rows of seating like the MDX offers.

 

I guess the Lexus RX is like the Volvo XC. They are out there. But sometimes I don't notice them.

 

Probably the same thing with other Lexus' since their styling's not what you call flashy......... very bland and designed to blend in with the rest of the traffic.

 

I see new Lexus RX's and SC430's everywhere in Chicago. No new IS's, but that wouldn't give me the impression that Lexus isn't doing well.

 

The RX has been Lexus' best seller for a while...up to 40% of their total I read in one place. As for the others, the public didn't really respond to the new ES (there's far more of the previous generation out there) and the GS and IS are aging designs. The SC didn't really catch on either, I read somewhere it's the car a 60 year old man would use to try to pick up a 20 year old chick. The LS is new, but expensive as hell so it's not a big seller. The GS is due to be replaced this spring, and the IS in the fall. Next spring (06) there should be a new ES too. Also, there are plans to form a performance division, along the lines of MB's AMG and BMW's M cars.

Lexus ain't doing too bad

 

The problem with the SC is that it was too trendy--it sold briskly to 'new money' up and commers initially--then the SL500 debuted. That was all she wrote at that point. Lexus originally had a plan to introduce a V6 SC330; but so many SC430s were hitting the used car market at prices in the mid to upper $40Ks that those plans were scrapped. Its a decent car but its a boulavardier (sp?)--the main selling points are interior/exterior design (if you like that) and lower price than competitors. I didn't mention the hardtop because both the XLR and SL500 have that--and buyers of the XK8/XKR are more loyal (meaning they probably didn't cross shop it with the others anyway). Sidenote--there is a guy in L.A. that put 20"s on a black SC430 and turbocharged it--I believe he's pulling 11s in the 1/4mi with like 500+HP.

 

When you talk about Lexus it's basically Toyota and there's a reason why they are tops: they build great cars and have great consumer loyalty. They aren't dumb. They know when to age out their models and recreate. They change when they have to and when it's best. You'll rarely see mistakes from them. I think creating Scion was genius: creating a new brand that appeals to new buyers that let's them be different and customize their own vehicle at the dealer. Also they disassociated themselves from the somewhat boring Toyota brand but also let people know they are backed by Toyota name and reliability. Their suv lineup amazes me. Off the top of my head I can name 19 current Toyota models. Look at Toyota as a whole, it's the most complete lineup- Lexus/Toyota/Scion.

 

I've also noticed that ads have recently been running for the ES. Flip open a magazine and you'll see them. This corresponds with increasing sales for the ES as indicated by the numbers WHealy provided. Lexus is definitely pushing the ES right now.

 

To try and build on czr's comments...

I think the trick with Toyota's line-up being so complete is that no matter what financial level you are looking at, they have a car that can accomodate you - save the +100K customers. You can start with the inexpensive Scion then move to the more expensive Toyota and again to Lexus. All the while choosing between cars and suv's at the varying price points.

 

Just to bad they don't have too many distinctive cars.

 

I think the IS not the ES is the bmw 3 series competition, FR inline 6 sports sedan. Sounds the same to me. I see lots of IS's here in the upscale part of the philly suburbs, doesnt look like much of a drop off here. BTW is it true that the 3.0L in the IS is the same as in the old supra?

 

Yes it's true, if you see an IS300 with an FMIC you can bet it's pretty damn fast.

The IS has never been a big seller, it's worse now than when it was introduced but when you don't change much on a car for 5 years that tends to happen... I'm just trying to figure out why Tyrell seems so passionate about it.

 

Correct, and btw it's not THAT fast, I've driven one. From what I've read the new IS should kick the crap out of the 3 series

 

The IS has been a sales disappointment, but it is a pretty cool car. This is what I've seen for the potential next generation


PS I think Tyrell's car affections are misplaced - see his thread on the new Hyundai sonata

 

the IS has 215HP--remember the 3.0L in the old Supra in its non-turbo charged form were rated at 220HP. That is why Toyota Soarers and Aristos (SC300s and GS300s) are so easily modified--there are several aftermarket turbocharged SC300s and GS300s roaming around the U.S.

 

I think I remember seeing the new GS will have wireless technology so the doors will unlock when you touch the handle if the key is in your pocket...pretty friggin cool if you ask me

 

Until, of of course the new 3 series comes out and it's a vicious cycle all over again. And then throw the A4 in the mix. Competition only benefits the consumer.

 

I don't know that I like the new 3 series that much...it's too stylized...BMW's have always been more classy than attention-getters. They should have stayed with what they were better at