kevink0000

More pretending regarding the efficacy of electric vehicles.

Don't trade in your ICE vehicle just yet, fellas.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ele...ehood-2798b4ab

The Electric-Vehicle Cheating Scandal

A government rule makes them look nearly seven times as efficient as they are.

It’s hard to think of a worse environmental scandal in recent years than
Volkswagen’s 2015 diesel-emissions cheating. The German automaker was rightly pursued by regulators, enforcement agencies and class-action lawyers.In all of these cases, regulators punished carmakers that had cut corners and misled the public. But when it comes to electric cars, the government has a cheating scandal of its own. That scandal, grabbing far fewer headlines, is buried deep in the Federal Register—on page 36,987 of volume 65.

When carmakers test gasoline-powered vehicles for compliance with the Transportation Department’s fuel-efficiency rules, they must use real values measured in a laboratory. By contrast, under an Energy Department rule, carmakers can arbitrarily multiply the efficiency of electric cars by 6.67. This means that although a 2022
Tesla
Model Y tests at the equivalent of about 65 miles per gallon in a laboratory (roughly the same as a hybrid), it is counted as having an absurdly high compliance value of 430 mpg. That number has no basis in reality or law.For exaggerating electric-car efficiency, the government rewards carmakers with compliance credits they can trade for cash. Economists estimate these credits could be worth billions: a vast cross-subsidy invented by bureaucrats and paid for by every person who buys a new gasoline-powered car.

Until recently, this subsidy was a Washington secret. Carmakers and regulators liked it that way. Regulators could announce what sounded like stringent targets, and carmakers would nod along, knowing they could comply by making electric cars with arbitrarily boosted compliance values. Consumers would unknowingly foot the bill.

The secret is out. After environmental groups pointed out the illegality of this charade, the Energy Department proposed eliminating the 6.67 multiplier for electric cars, recognizing that the number “lacks legal support” and has “no basis.”

Carmakers have panicked and asked the Biden administration to delay any return to legal or engineering reality. That is understandable. Without the multiplier, the Transportation Department’s proposed rules are completely unattainable. But workable rules don’t require government-created cheat codes. Carmakers should confront that problem head on.

Loki

iTrader: (1)

Sooner or later measuring electricity in gallons was going to be a problem

CO2 per mile (factoring in electricity or fuel source) would be more to the point.

kevink0000

That's a nice way to put it. I think you know better.

This also:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...et-2024-01-11/

Rental giant Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars

Jan 11 (Reuters) - Rental firm Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ.O), opens new tab is selling about 20,000 electric vehicles, including Teslas, from its U.S. fleet about two years after a deal with the automaker to offer its vehicles for rent, in another sign that EV demand has cooled.
Hertz will instead opt for gas-powered vehicles, it said on Thursday, citing higher expenses related to collision and damage for EVs even though it had aimed to convert 25% of its fleet to electric by 2024 end.Its decision underscores the bumpy road EVs have hit as their sales growth slows, causing carmakers like General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab and Ford (F.N), opens new tab to scale back production plans.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a note Hertz's move was another sign that EV expectations need to be "reset downward".
While consumers enjoy the driving experience and fuel savings (per mile) of an EV, Jonas said there are other "hidden costs to EV ownership".


"Expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EVs, remained high in the quarter," Hertz said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.
The company, which had earlier planned to order 100,000 Tesla vehicles by 2022 end and 65,000 units from Polestar over five years, said it would focus on improving profitability for the rest of its EV fleet.
German rental car company Sixt said in December it had not purchased Tesla vehicles since 2022 and was selling its fleet of Teslas "as part of our regular de-fleeting process".
It still plans to offer a range of electrified vehicles and "stick to our goal to electrify 70-90 percent of our rental fleet in Europe by 2030", it said on Thursday.

USED-EV PRICES DROP

Meanwhile, wholesale used-EV prices fell for most of 2023 as prices for new EVs fell and inventories of unsold electric vehicles rose, according to *** Automotive data.
*** forecast before Hertz's decision that used-EV prices would decline more than overall used vehicle prices in 2024.
"While 20,000 cars isn't a large number in the total used vehicle market, it does mean Hertz will be taking a major loss on each of these sales while further contributing to the trend of falling used EV values," iSeeCars.com analyst Karl Brauer said.
Hertz is selling some Tesla Model 3 for as low as about $20,000, nearly half the purchase price for the cheapest variant of the compact sedan, its used car website, opens new tab showed.
It lists more than 700 EVs on sale, including BMW's i3, Chevrolet's Bolt and Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y SUVs.

kevink0000

And this, written by a True Believer.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/11...their-rollout/Last year, there was a lot of hope and hype about EVs. Early adopters formed an initial line and were ready to buy these vehicles as soon as we had them to sell. But that enthusiasm has stalled. Today, the supply of unsold BEVs is surging, as they are not selling nearly as fast as they are arriving at our dealerships—even with deep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives.

While the goals of the regulations are admirable, they require consumer acceptance to become a reality. With each passing day, it becomes more apparent that this attempted electric vehicle mandate is unrealistic based on current and forecasted customer demand. Already, electric vehicles are stacking up on our lots, which is our best indicator of customer demand in the marketplace...

"EVs are selling three times as slow as [internal combustion engine] cars. And so dealers that were forced to make investments on the electrification space, forced to have floorplan financing against these cars, are suddenly running against 90–93 days of inventory turn vis-a-vis 31–32 days for the internal combustion cars. And that obviously is a real issue for them," said Jantoon Reigersman, CEO at TrueCar, a site that lets you shop for new or used cars throughout the country.

Getting mugged by reality, I guess. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Final paragraph is a winner. This guy is truly a Hero of the Revolution: Helpfully, the dealers published a complete list of the 3,882 signatories, making it very easy for people to see which businesses are opposing action on climate change. And I really have to ask: Why are four Polestar dealers included on this list?

Loki

iTrader: (1)

Tempest in a teacup. EVs have been on the market at scale for more than a decade, and one bad quarter in one country means the sky is falling? You know better

Used car sales and prices are also falling, I guess it's the end of used cars too?

kevink0000

Half of US Buick dealers chose buyouts over selling EVs in 2023

https://electrek.co/2023/12/20/half-of-us-buick-dealers-chose-buyouts-over-selling-evs-in-2023/

US Buick dealers jump ship over EVs

Buick is moving to all-electric by 2030, so GM gave its Buick dealers a choice in 2022 – invest money – $300,000 to $400,000, according to Automotive News – to prepare to sell EVs or voluntarily give up their franchise. GM is now going to end 2023 with around 1,000 Buick dealerships across the US – that’s 47% down from 1,958 in January. Plus, the buyout option remains open, so more could follow.

The Buick dealerships opting into electric have previously been responsible for around 20% of the company’s US sales.
So the most productive 80% Buick dealers are gone. The old 80/20 rule! Things that make you go hmmm....

kevink0000

No, there is a false market that has been artificially propped up by incentives and policies. That market is showing signs that it is not self-sustaining, as it should be by now.

The reverse is true, as you state, those decade old cars are now showing the true costs of ownership, which is proving to be not as favorable as promised.

I expect more, not less, of these indicators as time goes on.

Loki

iTrader: (1)

The oil industry is also propped up with incentives and policies,just not for the consumer. Also, America has one of the cheapest gasoline prices in the world, and a high electricity price in general. A momentary slowdown there isn't an indication of anything long term. I expect demand for EVs will re​​​sume when OPEC decides they should make more money again in their June get together.

​​​​​

kevink0000

The question I ask and have not found an answer for, is: Where is the Test City? Maybe I have missed the news on this.

Where is the city, small or medium sized, with even light industry, set up to test 100%, 80%, or even 50% electric vehicle adoption, that runs itself on green power as a proof of concept?

Or even one still running partially on the existing grid, slowly getting weaned off of it? I would love to see this in action, and see how they solve the problems associated with it.

You would think the 2030 or 2035 people would want to see this, and would be working feverishly on establishing it. Time's a wastin', right?

Don't you think they would be eager to see their theories tested?

No. These are unserious people, proposing unserious rules and policies-at best.

At worst, this is all leading to something(s) much more malevolent.

Loki

iTrader: (1)

A test city? Probably in China, the western world doesn't build cities to test something. Oslo is pretty far along though. In an oil rich country too.

kevink0000

Of course nobody has to build a test city. But the renewable structure needs to be built out in an existing city to see if its scalable, and what the unforeseen problems may be. Doesn't it make sense that it would be happening by now?

Glad you mentioned Oslo. Great article, everyone should read. The author bends himself into many positions to frame things in as positive a light as possible, since he clearly has an agenda. But, I will say, he is likely an honest man. He could have deep sixed a lot of the negatives and put up the unrealistic fluff and outright BS you usually see in columns with names like "Future Perfect" .

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...evs-tesla-oslo


Found this little tidbit:

Ending the sales of gas-powered cars, as Norway is close to doing, is an essential step toward addressing climate change. But a 2020 studyfound that even the most optimistic forecasts for global EV adoption would not prevent a potentially catastrophic 2 degree Celsius rise in global temperatures. Reducing driving — not just gas-powered driving — is crucial.

Sounds like that gave the game away--at least a little bit. Whoopsie! That missed the editor's desk apparently. A study. OK! Sign me up!

As EV models improved, Norwegians began to realize how valuable the cost savings from government incentives could be, particularly for urban commuters. After an already discounted EV purchase, owners’ ongoing expenses were minimal because Norwegian electricity is inexpensive (due to abundant hydropower), and EVs were exempt from tolls, parking, and ferries. EV owners were even invited to drive in bus-only lanes.

So I flew across the Atlantic to see what the fuss was about. I discovered a Norwegian EV bonanza that has indeed reduced emissions — but at the expense of compromising vital societal goals. Eye-popping EV subsidies have flowed largely to the affluent, contributing to the gap between rich and poor in a country proud of its egalitarian social policies.

Subsidies. There's that word again.

Oil rich? Nah. They are getting where they are with old tech. What happens when that is gone due to a study?

Norway is 98% Hydroelectric. "Deemed" renewable for the moment. Hmmmm.

Loki

iTrader: (1)

How is hydro not renewable? What does this renewable infrastructure in a city scale look like, that is not already happening for you? Plenty of cities, my own included, are building elements of electrified infra not because it's a test but because all infra here is by definition electrified. Alberta, Canada's own Texas, is in the middle of a debate about whether it makes sense to keep gas power plants around at all IN CASE demand surges for some reason.

Yes reducing driving in general is better than any other solution for personal emission, so your test city would probably focus on public transport, not EVs. And that public transport would probably be electric (train/metro/trams).

kevink0000

It has been "deemed" renewable in certain nations and states, but not in others. For various reasons. Some are valid.

There is environmental impact of damming, and drought will exacerbate the problems already inherent in hydro. It is deemed this way for the time being, but that can change too, (and likely will).

Just like nuclear was on the chopping block in Germany, until it was deemed "green" in 2022 when the Ukraine war made it important to do so. Surprise!

https://californialocal.com/localnew...limate-change/

Hydroelectric Seems Like Clean Energy. Here’s Why It’s More Complicated Than That

The changing climate has created an urgent need to switch to renewable, emission-free sources of energy—an ambitious goal that California, by state law, must reach by 2045. At the same time, California finds itself caught in a dangerous Catch-22 because climate change is also making the transition to clean energy more difficult to achieve. Climate change itself is making climate change harder to combat.

If that seems confusing, let’s narrow it down to one word—water.

Water is in short supply in California and throughout most of the western United States. More than 70 percent of territory in the 11 westernmost states was under at least “moderate” drought conditions as of August 2022, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, with about 52 percent under “severe” drought.


The western drought has lowered the Hoover Dam’s power output by 33 percent. And in 2021, California’s in-state monthly generation of hydroelectric power fell to 48 percent below normal, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 2021, Edward C. Hyatt hydro plant (pictured above) at Lake Oroville reservoir in Butte County was forced to shut down due to low water levels.


My point has always been, and continues to be, that these ideas, studies, and policies are all half-baked at best, and will lead to dire unintended consequences for the sorry people under their governing. The fact that easily foreseeable events, like war, are not considered ahead of time, and causes them to flail about and reverse their previous views, shows that their thinking, what there is of it, is in error. We should not let them take us down the primrose path with their "science".

So, fellow Rotarians, when you hear some person going on about climate change and renewable goals, and they are so sure of themselves, you should always double check what they say. The "nudging" will get stronger with each policy failure and slipping public acceptance. Remember also, when someone says, "It's settled science" it is most likely neither.

Like Chuck D says, "Don't believe the hype, it's a sequel."

And, keep your ICE vehicle. The future is likely hybrid, for a very very long time. Not 2030 or 2035.

Loki

iTrader: (1)

Interesting you mention the german example of cutting off gas and oil based energy production to focus on nuclear. It's not a matter of convenience, it's a matter of them having gotten their fossil fuel from a belligerent supplier who can and has used this dependence as a threat and a weapon. In the same way, oil companies have used your energy dependence to argue for their interests and against your own. You're very focused on seeding doubt and going "hmm" without having alternative proposals, which is a hallmark of misinformation. All policies are half baked, by definition, including those supporting oil production and distribution. They work with information available in the status quo. People learn and adapt as a result of action. If you want to meaure all impacts of every actiom ahead of time, before you commit, you may as well not leave the house (and save on driving.

There is no future in long term future in fossil fuels, at some point they stop making economic and environmental sense.
​​​​New energy platforms don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better than status quo. Since you've ignored most of what I wrote I'll see myself out at this point.

Meat Head

Interesting thread so now I’m compelled to make my own contribution based upon my esteemed opinion and version of reality.

The solution is transit systems to get personal vehicles off the road. This will require a lot of concentrated effort by all levels of government (gasp! This could be perceived as evil Socialism by some).

Renewable hydropower is not my favourite option. Has anyone else here seen what happens to the local environment of the soon to be reservoir? I’ve made a few work related trips past Site C in the Peace River of British Columbia. It’s the perfect solution for NIMBY’s living far away in cities. Downstream of the dam the effects of reduced/controlled flow on the entire watershed will greatly affect Great Slave Lake and the MacKenzie River.

I’ve done work on the Red River in Manitoba related to the erosion and infill of the waterway at the mouth of the river at Lake Winnipeg. The dam north of the lake prolongs the spring melt high water levels. This condition exacerbates the seching of lake water due to sustained winds (the water piles up at either end of the lake). The marshland at the southern end of the lake is reducing, possibly drowned by high water.

Then there’s my favourite topic of the Nechako River that was diverted for aluminum production in Kitimat. We wonder why salmon runs are weaker when 1/3 of the contributing flow of the Fraser River basin is diverted/restrained. The smelter has reduced needs so the diverted water should have been reduced. No no no, this would make sense. So now we use the power generated in Kitimat to sell south of the border in the interest of the now privatized profits. At least soon some of that power will be used again for the natural gas terminal instead of profit generation.

So hydroelectric power is low emission but, we seem to ignore the damage footprint since it remains hidden to most of us that live in the southern regions of Canada. Meanwhile the saviour EV is gaining support so it can be fuelled by hydroelectric, natural gas and coal power generation. There has been significant stigma around nuclear power as a result of mistakes outside the country by poorly managed/designed plants. Has fear of this been fed by competing industry? More nuclear power is part of the solution - and very unpopular/feared.

To me the obvious solution is to get me and my suburban neighbours out of our cars and into transit for daily commute. Then I can use my car for trips and fun instead of smog and stress. The 3 levels of government with backing by an educated population need to concentrate on efficient mass transit instead of this pseudo utopian solution of the EV.

UnknownJinX

Well, since we brought up China already... Gasoline is considered pretty expensive in China while electricity isn't, and yet, you see EV penetration a lot more in Southern China vs. Northern China.

And we are talking about a country that has some dirt cheap BEVs, by our standards, and they can push their infrastructure a lot quicker than North America. At some point, the limitation of the tech itself kicks in. Not much you can do about that.

I think EVs are a good alternative, but they are a long way away from replacing ICE completely.

People always say that ICE development has bottlenecked, but the thing is, that's true for EVs as well. They are already so efficient that there isn't much more you can squeeze out of them. You can't be more than 100% efficient. Lithium batteries aren't getting significantly better, either. It's all about the lower price point, but you know, that low price gets ethically questionable if you know where a lot of the raw material is coming from. The solid-state battery is still very much a pipe dream, and BEVs themselves are also pretty much about how many screens you can shove in them, especially if you look at the Chinese ones.

Charging speed also can't increase without doing major infrastructure and safety upgrades, and we also know how amazing high charging speed is for batteries. Also, if you think lithium battery fires are fun to put out nowadays, be excited for bigger and more frequent ones if there is a higher-density battery. That's just how batteries are.

In the end, I agree that hybrids will be sticking around a lot longer.

I can definitely see problems with hydropower; no energy comes for free. That's just how it is. I am with you on nuclear power, too.

Two major problems I see with public transit in North America:

- While I see that we can improve the public transit in major cities, for a lot of smaller cities, public transit just stops making sense economically for the local government due to the low population density. Can't exactly translate the logic from a continent that's barely larger than Canada or the US with a much greater population, especially if we are talking about Canada.

- Public transit culture sucks in North America, I will be straight up. I have zero issues taking public transit in Japan, as people tend to keep to themselves, it's tidy, just crowded, which I can deal with. Even with the chikan problem(sexual harassment on trains), Japan is putting some effort into curbing that like female-only cars. In China it's a bit different, but if you are being an **** on the bus/metro? Expect to be tossed off the bus/train by your fellow passengers when they have had enough of your crap. It's a public space, and if you don't know how to properly share it with others? GTFO. So basically either everyone behaves themselves properly, or we can toss people off the transit if they don't know how to use it. It's just annoying when you have weirdos on buses that don't know how to behave themselves properly.

kevink0000

I said this:

My point has always been, and continues to be, that these ideas, studies, and policies are all half-baked at best, and will lead to dire unintended consequences for the sorry people under their governing. The fact that easily foreseeable events, like war, are not considered ahead of time, and causes them to flail about and reverse their previous views, shows that their thinking, what there is of it, is in error. We should not let them take us down the primrose path with their "science".

Planning for the defense and potential for war is part of good government. That alone shows how foolish these people are. You can then work backward from there, and see error after error. This is not the "A" team by any means. Comparing that to driving a car is silly.

I don't have to have a counter-proposal to critique a proposal. That was a straw man on your part. The hallmark of misinformation?

I did respond to what you said, but you must have missed it.

The point I make is that like very few times in history most of the western world is run by very, very foolish people, and it's almost universal.

UnknownJinX

I mean, if the point is to hang onto our ICE cars for longer, I can't argue against that. I also think that alternatives are good, but replacement isn't feasible. Besides, that just switches our dependency on one type of energy source to another. That's why it's good to have alternatives.

I think EV sales are stagnating as well because, again, there isn't much you can do to improve the drivetrain. Efficiency is already pretty high so any improvement is marginal at best. It all just boils down to, again, how many screens you can stick in there. In the West as well, price is also still pretty out of touch for a lot of people who need a cheap car to get around.

And cool, performance EVs can do 0-60 in like a second, but you know what rich people also don't lack? Money for gas. The horsepower schtick just doesn't work forever especially when there isn't much... character. Kind of an important thing for upmarket brands. I think that's at least partially why Rivian and Lucid are stumbling. For your more average folks, these new brands also aren't exactly known for cheap and readily available parts when your car is involved in accidents.

Politicians and business people ignoring engineers also isn't news, and it's always hilarious to see them getting burnt by that. Hyperloop is some real comedy gold.

Again, just my take. I love these discussions. Keep them coming.

Meat Head

Interesting to hear the experience of other countries and transit. Unfortunately, I’ve only had travel experience in Canada (too many kids, not enough money) for work, arctic circle south and coast to coast. We’ve transit options only in urban clusters but, most of Canada lives in the cities.

I couldn’t image an EV in the North West Territories during winter or in a remote area where you pass a community after 5 hours travelling.

Those of us in the cities create most of greenhouse gases causing the issues. It’s us that need a realistic option of not using personal vehicles. 3 hours commuting on transit versus 1 hour in my car = forget transit. EV isn’t a good solution here since the approximately 10% of our population is scattered and the rest are just moving their tailpipe to power generation plants.

Personal security on our local transit system is questionable with some of the zombies sharing the cars for free. Most passengers are stuck in their phones ignoring the zombies in hope they go away or at least aren’t personally affected. I’m not sure what catalyst is needed to shift to the GTFO approach you described in China(?). We need this.

kevink0000

Public transportation in most US cities is very much out of control, as is a lot of general crime. I used to ride the subways in NYC back in early-mid 80s and it sucked then, I can't imagine it now. I rode the PT in Singapore and it was...amazing.

My son picked up a 2014 Volt, (range extender only ICE) and he loves it for his commute. I drove in it last night, and it seems to make sense for a lot of uses. That's good. It is a lot of car for the money he paid for it, used.

My company has about a million Teslas and Rivains in the parking lot when we have a general meeting. I know the owners do not use them at all for any kind of trip, they have tried to, and found the charging time to add objectionable travel time. That is alot of money to spend on a vehicle with such limitations, in my view.

I think it is as simple as the novelty factor is wearing off, and hard reality is taking over the excitement and the warm fuzzies. I would love to see stats on how many owners of EVs buy another one when their current car is done.


Also:

Do greenhouse gases really exist? To what extent?

Careful with codifying those premises in your own mind, without truly examining them for yourself.

We are all being nudged.

That is my point.

UnknownJinX

I now live in a place where I don't have to drive to commute and gotta say, I like that. 15 minutes of walking on most days is pretty good for me and I can save the gas, wear and tear for more enjoyable drives. I do sometimes get a company car to commute, but again, the option to commute without a car is pretty nice.

And yes, security is a big issue with our public transit. That's going to be a roadblock if you want people to take public transit. Ideally, we can adopt the "everyone behaves themself" model in Japan, but the "don't be a douche or GTFO" model in China is more realistic. That said, I can just see the media milking the crap out of isolated incidents to be related to hate or whatever when it really has nothing to do with the victim's identities and everything to do with the fact that they were being a jerk.

My personal take is that this doesn't even matter anymore. Our approach to the whole global warming/climate change issue is wrong to begin with.

Even if we curb our emissions to complete zero today, the CO2 is a PITA to collect, and any other potentially meaningful way to deal with CO2 is a non-starter economically.

Stratospheric aerosol injection has its challenges, but that's a lot more realistic than the alternatives by far.

And oh yeah, if you are too lazy to walk, don't live somewhere too cold, and want a second car just for city driving, those really cheap Nissan Leaves with ~100km of range are something to consider, if you can also get over their ugliness, that is.

Meat Head

I become concerned when the word science is placed within quotes. Much of the misinformation and conspiracy theories that have become prevalent these past 4 years have arisen from political unrest in western countries. Fear mongering is an excellent tool in getting populations to stop thinking. Distraction and fear have become commonplace. We used to communicate with each other for solutions to common problems. Solutions based upon science (no quotes). Now common problems are used to separate us into non thinking, reactive camps. Seeding the media with well worded information to create doubt in measurable results. Science vs mythology.


For the distraction process to continue we need only half the argument presented. Follow up with language about how one “side” is full of deceit. Mistakes only occur if decisions are made in the effort to find solutions. Mistake = learning. Drawing excessive attention to the mistakes of others without providing an alternate solution is a low cost method of gaining attention with minimal personal risk.

kevink0000

You should be concerned when science is in quotes. Like I have said, do your own research draw your own conclusions, much of what is taken to be fact today is really BS.

Don't think like me, think like you. But think.

UnknownJinX

Well, it's a great thing our public transit system is just so reliable.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...n-22-1.7090592

delhi

I wanna thank folks here for keeping the climate change in balance by continuing to drive our emissions hatin' rotary beasties.

Fascinating thoughts here.